What's Next for the Pacific Northwest?
Weak El Niño Conditions
El Niño conditions are still present in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Both the atmospheric component of ENSO and equatorial sea-surface temperature anomalies have weakened over the last 4 weeks, but the "El Niño" Advisory issued by the Climate Prediction Center is in effect. ENSO forecast models indicate a continuation of the weak El Niño conditions through summer (~70% chance) and perhaps even fall (~55%). The forecasts for the fall will have more confidence later in the summer.
What does this mean for Washington in the coming months?
The CPC June temperature outlook has increased chances of above normal temperatures for all of WA state, with chances exceeding 40% on a three-tiered system for most of the state. For June precipitation, the outlook shows increased chances of below normal precipitation for northwestern region of the state, which includes the Olympic Peninsula, and the northern and central Puget Sound. There are equal chances of below, equal to, or above normal precipitation for the remainder of the state.
The CPC summer (June-July-August; JJA) outlook has increased chances of above normal temperatures statewide, with chances exceeding 50% on a three-tiered system for western WA. For summer (JJA) precipitation, there are increased chances of below normal precipitation for the western half of WA state and increased chances of above normal precipitation for a small portion of southeastern WA. In between those two regions, there are equal chances of below, equal to, or above normal precipitation this summer.
Last Updated: 5/16/2019
Climate Prediction Resources
NWS Local 3-Month Temperature Outlook
The links below provide access to global and regional climate predictions.