What's Next for the Pacific Northwest?
Weak El Niño Conditions
Weak El Niño conditions are present in the tropical Pacific Ocean with very little change in the magnitude of the sea-surface temperature anomalies over the last 4 weeks. The atmospheric component has remained in place as well. The "El Niño" Advisory issued by the Climate Prediction Center in mid-February is still in effect. ENSO forecast models are favoring a continuation of the weak El Niño conditions through summer (~65% chance) and perhaps even fall (~50%). The forecasts for the fall will have more confidence later in the summer.
What does this mean for Washington in the coming months?
The CPC May temperature outlook has increased chances of above normal temperatures for all of WA state, with chances exceeding 40% on a three-tiered system. Northwestern WA has even higher chances of above normal May temperatures. For May precipitation, the outlook shows increased chances of below normal precipitation for the western two-thirds of the state. There are equal chances of below, equal to, or above normal precipitation for the eastern third of the state.
The CPC May-June-July (MJJ) outlook has increased chances of above normal temperatures statewide, with chances exceeding 50% on a three-tiered system for most of the state. For MJJ precipitation, there are increased chances of below normal precipitation for nearly the entire state, with a small area of the eastern-most part of state having equal chances of below, equal to, or above normal precipitation.
Last Updated: 4/18/2019
Climate Prediction Resources
NWS Local 3-Month Temperature Outlook
The links below provide access to global and regional climate predictions.