What's Next for the Pacific Northwest?
Neutral ENSO Conditions
Neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions are still present in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) were near-normal throughout the equatorial Pacific during the last week and near-normal to above normal over the last month. Neutral conditions are expected to last through the summer. ENSO forecast models favor El Niño conditions at nearly 70% for the October through December period, and most models are predicting weak-to-moderate El Niño development for the 2018-19 winter.
What does this mean for Washington in the coming months?
The current seasonal forecasts from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) are primarily based on seasonal forecast model guidance. The CPC September temperature outlook has higher chances of above normal temperatures for all of WA, with a slightly lower likelihood of warmer than normal temperatures on the Olympic Peninsula and southwestern WA compared to the rest of the state. The September precipitation forecast indicates increased chances of below normal precipitation for the entire state. There are higher chances of below normal precipitation for the western two-thirds of the state.
The CPC fall (September-October-November; SON) outlook is very similar to the September monthly outlook. The temperature outlook is calling for warmer than normal temperatures statewide. For precipitation, there are increased chances of below normal fall precipitation statewide, with higher chances of below normal precipitation in western WA.
Last Updated: 8/16/2018
Climate Prediction Resources
NWS Local 3-Month Temperature Outlook
The links below provide access to global and regional climate predictions.