OWSC

Climate Outlook
What's Next for the Pacific Northwest?

El Niño Conditions

El Niño conditions are present in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, and are expected to persist through the winter of 2015-16. Weekly sea-surface temperature (SST) departures from normal exceed 2 degrees Celsius in the central and eastern tropical Pacific, and SST anomalies over the last 30 days are warmer than normal throughout the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The "El Niño Advisory" that was released on March 5 is still in effect. Model consensus is high that the El Niño will persist through the winter, with chances above 90%. The 3-month seasonal forecasts from the Climate Prediction Center are representing the tendency for El Niño winters to be warmer and drier than usual in the Pacific Northwest.

What does this mean for Washington in the coming months?

The CPC three-class autumn (September-October-November; SON) temperature outlook has increased chances of above normal temperatures for the entire state, with chances of warmer than normal temperatures highest in the western two-thirds of the state. For SON precipitation, there are elevated chances of below normal precipitation statewide.

The outlook for October-November-December (OND) is very similar to the fall outlook: there are increased chances of above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation statewide.

Last Updated: 8/20/2015


Climate Prediction Resources

NWS Local 3-Month Temperature Outlook
Select a location plotted on the map to view the local outlook.

Quillayute Port Angeles Hoquiam Centralia Olympia Seattle-Tacoma Mount Vernon Astoria, OR Hillsboro, OR Portland, OR Troutdale, OR Government Camp, OR Hood River, OR The Dalles, OR Pendleton, OR Richland Walla Walla Lewiston, ID Pullman Spokane Republic Omak Ross Dam Bellingham Plain Cle Elum Mt. Rainier-Paradise Yakima Ellensburg Wenatchee Ephrata

The links below provide access to global and regional climate predictions.