What's Next for the Pacific Northwest?
Neutral ENSO conditions still exist in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, according to the Climate Prediction Center (CPC). The equatorial Pacific Ocean sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) had cooled in mid-July, but have since warmed. The Niño indices are now positive, and averaged over the last 4 weeks, SSTs have been above average throughout the equatorial Pacific. Models are still predicting the development of a weak El Niño, with a 60% chance of development in the fall and a 65% chance during the winter. The "El Niño Watch" that the Climate Prediction Center issued on March 6 is still in effect.
What does this mean for Washington in the coming months?
The CPC outlooks are reflecting the expected development of the El Niño in the coming months. The CPC three-class October-November-December (OND) temperature outlook has increased chances of above normal temperatures for the entire state, and the chances of warmer than normal temperatures are greater west of the Cascade Mountains. For precipitation, there are increased chances of below normal precipitation statewide.
The November-December-January (NDJ) CPC three-class outlook is very similar to the OND outlook and predicts higher chances of above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation for the entire state.
Last Updated: 9/18/2014
Climate Prediction Resources
NWS Local 3-Month Temperature Outlook
The links below provide access to global and regional climate predictions.