What's Next for the Pacific Northwest?
El Niño Conditions
El Niño conditions are present in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, and are expected to persist through at least the end of the calendar year. All 4 Niño indexing regions have had warm weekly sea-surface temperature (SST) departures from normal exceeding 1 degree Celsius, with the anomalies in the far eastern equatorial Pacific exceeding 2 degrees Celsius. Average over the last month, SSTs are warmer than normal across the entire Pacific as well. The "El Niño Advisory" that was released on March 5 is still in effect. Model predictions are now showing very high chances that the El Niño will persist through the calendar year and into next winter. Chances that the El Niño will persist through spring and summer exceed 90% with chances exceeding 80% that it will last through the winter of 2015-16.
What does this mean for Washington in the coming months?
The CPC three-class July-August-September (JAS) temperature outlook has increased chances of above normal temperatures for the entire state, with chances of warmer than normal temperatures highest in the western half of the state. For JAS precipitation, there are equal chances of below, equal to, or above normal precipitation for the entire state.
The outlook for August-September-October (ASO) is also calling for increased chances of above normal temperatures statewide. As we approach fall, the precipitation outlook is calling for drier than normal conditions for nearly the entire state. An area in eastern WA (including Pullman, Walla Walla, and Spokane) has equal chances of below, equal to, or above normal precipitation for ASO.
Last Updated: 6/18/2015
Climate Prediction Resources
NWS Local 3-Month Temperature Outlook
The links below provide access to global and regional climate predictions.